The big day is just 2 days away, ladies and gentlemen, and it’s shaping up to be one of the best Oscars in a while. With Seth MacFarlane hosting and a lot of categories that are pretty much anyone’s game to win, here’s hoping the show is both funny and surprising. And without further ado, here are my predictions:
Picture: Argo-Argo’s been taking home the big prize at pretty much every major awards ceremony, and the Oscar’s as of late have been a contest of what’s “hot” at the time rather than what’s actually the best movie of the year. Even with Ben Affleck’s best director snub, Argo has the strongest shot of winning right now. Or, the Academy just doesn’t give a damn what everyone else thinks. I’m banking on the former.
Could Win: Lincoln
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Snubbed: Skyfall (there was a tenth spot, Academy. Come on!)
Director: Michael Haneke (Amour)-This is one of the tough ones. It basically seems like a race between Steven Spielberg and Ang Lee. But I’m putting my money on those two splitting the votes and Haneke ultimately upsetting both of them. Let’s face it: we only care about the director race because we have no idea who will win with Affleck not nominated. I have a feeling a surprise nominee, namely Haneke, will slip through the cracks.
Could Win: Steven Spielberg
Should Win: Ben Affleck…oh…
Snubbed: Kathryn Bigelow, Ben Affleck, Quentin Tarantino, Tom Hooper (any of them could have taken Benh Zeitlin’s place)
Lead Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)-This is what’s called a done-deal, ladies and gentlemen. If anyone else wins it will be a huge upset. With my predictions, this is Lincoln’s big win.
Could Win: Seriously?
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Lead Actress: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)-She’s the oldest Oscar nominee in its history and her birthday is the night of the awards. I know the Academy isn’t known for its sentimentality, but it is known for giving Oscars to people because they’re “overdue” and probably won’t get another shot (see Jeff Bridges and Sandra Bullock). Nobody embodies that more than Riva, not to mention the fact that her performance was actually great and the Academy is in love with Amour. Her biggest competition is Jennifer Lawrence, who has plenty of more years ahead of her.
Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Should Win: Jessica Chastain
Supporting Actor: Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook)-This is another tough one. Every nominee has won before and literally anyone could win. I’m gonna go with DeNiro, though, because the Academy obviously loves the acting in Silver Linings Playbook (Jacki Weaver even got nominated for crying out loud), and if my predictions are accurate, this will be SLP’s big win of the night. This is DeNiro’s best performance in years, and he hasn’t won since 1981, and hasn’t been nominated since 1992.
Could Win: Who the fuck knows.
Should Win: Robert DeNiro
Snubbed: Javier Bardem
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)-Like Day-Lewis, this is pretty much a sure thing. If she loses, I won’t be the only one thoroughly disappointed and surprised.
Could Win: Sally Field (but fuck that, right?)
Should Win: Anne Hathaway
Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)-Michael Haneke and Marc Boal are Tarantino’s main competition here. Boal just won three years ago for Hurt Locker and Zero Dark Thirty hasn’t been getting nearly as much buzz as that film (it’s not even close, unfortunately) and I already predicted Haneke to win director. So I feel Tarantino will benefit from this, not to mention that Tarantino prides himself on his screenplays and if Django wins one thing Oscar night (since I’m predicting Waltz won’t win) then it’ll be for it’s awesome and deserving screenplay.
Could Win: Amour
Should Win: Django Unchained
Adapted Screenplay: Chris Terrio (Argo)-Terrio upset Tony Kushner at the Writers Guild Awards so I think he’ll win here as well. If Argo can win screenplay and editing, then it can win picture. Look at Crash, which took home both of those prizes and best picture when it wasn’t even expected to win. Argo is.
Could Win: Lincoln
Should Win: Beasts of the Southern Wild…ha, just kidding.
Snubbed: The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
Foreign Language Film: (Seriously?) Amour
Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man
Documentary Short Subject: Inocente
Live Action Short Film: Curfew
Animated Short Film: Paperman
Original Score: Life of Pi
Original Song: “Skyfall”-Adele (Skyfall)
Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty
Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Production Design: Life of Pi
Makeup and Hair Styling: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Film Editing: Argo
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
The Tally: Life of Pi will win the most awards out of the Best Picture nominees with 4 technical wins, but Argo will ultimately come out on top with 3 wins including Picture. Amour will also come away with 3 in a surprising turn of events. Les Miserables will garner 2 wins, both of them not all that shocking. Initial front runner Lincoln will only walk away with 1 win, but for the category that no one will be shocked by. Silver Linings Playbook will also walk away with only 1 win, but not for the favorited Jennifer Lawrence, as will Django for the category it most deserves. Zero Dark Thirty, with its torture controversy, will only take home 1 technical win while indie underdog Beasts of the Southern Wild will stay that way with 0 wins. Of course, this is all under the assumption that the Academy might shake things up a little bit this year and not give all the awards to Lincoln.
The Toughest Calls: 1. Supporting Actor, 2. Director, 3. Actress
The Easiest Calls: 1. Foreign Language Film, 2. Original Song, 3. Visual Effects, 4. Actor, 5. Supporting Actress
Overall, anything could happen this Sunday, but these are my picks and I’m sticking to them. Come back after the awards to see if I was right.